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YIELD CURVE NORMALIZING
5.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8% 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y
2Y4.30%
10Y4.38%
SPREAD+8bps
SHAPEHUMPED
CREDIT SPREADS
HY HIGH YIELD
380bps
IG INVEST GRADE
105bps
CCC DISTRESSED
680bps
EM EMERG. MKTS
310bps
HY-IG gap: 275bps — stress moderate
VIX TERM STRUCTURE
SPOT VIX
18.4
VIX3M
20.1
VIX6M
21.8
VVIX
92.4
Structure: CONTANGO — markets calm near-term
MOVE Index: 108 — bond vol elevated
DOLLAR & RATES
DXY104.32+0.22%
FED FUNDS4.50%HOLD
REAL YIELD2.05%+
5Y BEI2.38%INFLATION
M2 GROWTH3.2% YoYSTABLE
MACRO RATIOS
COPPER / GOLD 0.00176 ↓ WEAK
OIL / GOLD 0.036 NEUTRAL
S&P / GOLD 2.24 ↑ STOCKS RICH
10Y / VIX 4.20x WATCH
GDP Q4 2025 +2.4% SOLID
COMMODITY COMPLEX
WTI
$84.20
−1.24%
GOLD
$2,341
+0.33%
COPPER
$4.12
−1.80%
SILVER
$27.80
+0.41%
NAT GAS
$2.14
−0.93%
WHEAT
580¢
+0.87%
RECESSION PROBABILITY COMPOSITE MODERATE
38%
Yield Curve+8bps — normalizing
Credit SpreadsHY 380bps — elevated
PMI Composite52.7 — expansion
Leading Indicators−0.3% — slowing
Unemployment3.7% — healthy
Consumer Sentiment72.1 — cautious
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Smart Money vs Retail
INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING DIVERGENCE · LIVE
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Asset Divergence Matrix
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Smart Money ↑, Retail ↓ → Institutions accumulating while retail sells = Contrarian BUY signal
Smart Money ↓, Retail ↑ → Institutions distributing while retail buys = Contrarian SELL signal
Divergence Score → Higher score = stronger institutional vs retail disagreement = higher contrarian edge
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